A Devastating Blow to Al Qaeda

Osama bin Laden’s death is a devastating blow to Al Qaeda, but it is not the end of jihadi terrorism. While it is demoralizing for the whole jihadi camp, it will not eliminate the motivation to attack the U.S. and is likely to trigger revenge attacks.

But from a strategic point of view, Bin Laden’s death could mark a critical juncture in the process of demilitarizing the war on terrorism and the beginning of the end for the U.S. presence in Afghanistan.

Although his operational role has greatly diminished since 9/11, he was still vital for Al Qaeda’s existence. He devised the group’s strategy, and was a unique symbol of resistance. Others may prove to be better strategists but no individual, including his lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, possesses a similar aura of invincibility and appeal among jihadists.

Bin Laden’s demise also puts the future of the broader Al Qaeda network in doubt. Groups that swore allegiance to bin Laden himself may not accept the authority of his successor. The leadership of Al Qaeda’s branch in the Arabian Peninsula, which in the past couple of years eclipsed the central organization, may even present a direct challenge to the leadership in South Asia and vie for leadership of the jihadi movement.

While the strategic threat from Al Qaeda itself will probably decline, the motivation for revenge attacks by groups and individuals in the West could intensify. Lone terrorists and “homegrown” cells in particular may well seek to avenge Bin Laden, and they will be even less discriminate in their killings. Pakistan will probably suffer (as always) the greatest carnage as multiple local jihadi groups seek revenge against that state and its citizens.

In the longer run, Bin Laden’s death improves the prospects of ending the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan. He was a liability for the Taliban who have much greater interest in regaining control over Afghanistan than waging a global jihad. The Taliban will now have an easier time distancing itself from Al Qaeda and reasserting its authority over its remnants. With Bin Laden gone, the global war on terrorism can take another step away from its earlier focus on the battlefield and toward dealing with terrorism through intelligence and police  work.

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