This project is fortunate to have the input of several psychologists whose work has been influenced by Kahneman and Tversky. Following is a brief bio of the interviewees, their relation to “On the Psychology of Prediction,” and additional web resources where appropriate.

Dr. Doug Davis newsletter/jan04/davis.htm

Dr. Davis is currently a professor of social psychology at Haverford College. Heavily influenced in the 1970s by Kahneman and Tversky, Dr. Davis applied Bayesian logic to clinical decision-making. Featured in this project are his comments on the applicability of Bayesian logic in “real world” settings as well as on the distinguishing features of Kahneman and Tversky’s studies.

Below is a list of relevant resources on Dr. Davis and his work:

On Being Detectably Sane in Insane Places: Base Rates and Psychodiagnosis. This article presents a Bayesian argument in contrast to an earlier study that implied that clinicians were unable to make effective diagnoses. A version of this paper appeared in the Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 1976, 85, 416-422.

What's in a Name: A Bayesian Rethinking of Attributional Biases in Clinical Judgment. A version of this article was published in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 1979, 47, 1109-1114.

Dr. Sidney Perloe

Dr. Perloe is currently a professor of social psychology and social cognition at Haverford College. Dr. Perloe is interested in stereotype theory and, as a result, immediately understood the relevance of Kahneman and Tversky’s work to this sub-field. In his interview, Dr. Perloe discusses his assessment of Kahneman and Tversky’s work and Bayesian theory in relation to his dual career as a researcher and a professor. He also contextualizes Kahneman and Tversky’s work in the larger context of social cognition and decision-making.

Dr. Clark McCauley

Dr. McCauley is currently a professor of social psychology at Bryn Mawr College. His work serves as a counterpoint to Kahneman and Tversky’s use of Bayesian logic in the context of decision-making. Although Dr. McCauley’s early publications were positively influenced by Kahneman and Tversky’s work, he since has rethought his position on Bayesian logic and decision-making. In his interview, Dr. McCauley highlights the shortcomings of Kahneman and Tversky’s method. He also discusses the failings of Bayesian logic when applied to “real world” dynamics.

Below is a list of relevant resources on Dr. McCauley and his work:

The Bet on Bias is Cockeyed Optimism. In this short article, Dr. McCauley argues that Bayesian logic, although elegant in theory, becomes less useful when applied to “real world” situations. This article is hosted in an online psychology database, and one should note the threaded discussion that is linked at the top of the page.

Dr. Jonathan Baron

Dr. Baron is currently a professor of cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on public policy and decision-making from a utilitarian perspective. No audio clips of Dr. Baron are linked to this PDF, but his written commentary appears throughout the discussion of base rate, utility, and decision-making.

Below is a list of relevant resources on Dr. Baron and his work on heuristics and decision-making:

Heuristics and biases in equity judgments: a utilitarian approach. Dr. Baron offers a comprehensive account of modern utilitarianism in relation to public policy. This article is most relevant when considered in conjunction with the section on utility.

Why Teach Thinking?: An Essay. This article, although not directly related to Kahneman and Tversky’s work, is helpful in contextualizing thinking about thinking.

This links to Dr. Baron’s homepage.