Aaron Clauset '01 - Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Terrorist EventsAaron Clauset '01 - Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Terrorist Eventshttp://www.haverford.edu/calendar/details/258691Magill Philips Wing2014-02-20T19:30:002014-02-20T20:30:00
February 20, 7:30PM–8:30PM
Magill Philips Wing
A Young Academic Alumni Lecture Series t alk sponsored by the Libraries and the D epartments of Computer Science and Physics
Thursday, February 20 Tea at 7:15 p.m. Talk at 7:30 p.m. Philips Wing, Magill Library
The 9/11 terrorist events resulted in nearly 3000 fatalities, which is about six times as many as the next largest event over the past 40 years. Was this enormous loss of life statistically unlikely given modern terrorism’s historical record? And what statistical models can we use to predict the next large-scale terrorist attack? In this talk, Aaron Clauset '01 will describe a generic statistical algorithm for estimating the likelihood of such rare events, which combines semi-parametric models of tail behavior with a non-parametric bootstrap, as well as the challenges of accurately estimating the probability of another such attack.
As in his research, Clauset's talk will combine elements of mathematics, computer science, political science, and other disciplines.
Aaron Clauset '01 is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Computer Science and the BioFrontiers Institute at the University of Colorado Boulder, and External Faculty at the Santa Fe Institute, where he was also an Omidyar Fellow. He is an internationally recognized expert on network science and statistical modeling for complex systems. His work has appeared in prestigious scientific venues such as Nature, Science, PNAS, JACM, ICML, SIAM Review, and Physical Review Letters, and has been covered in the popular press by the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Discover Magazine, New Scientist, Wired, Miller-McCune, the Boston Globe, and The Guardian.
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